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View the Project on GitHub Hrunner83/Marathon

Project: Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc

Introduction

Kilian Jornet - Greatest Of All Time? In the field of Ultra running, distances further than a marathon at 26.2 miles or 42.2 kilometers, Jornet enjoys celebrity status and accredited the title of Greatest Of All Time (RUN247, 2022). He has multiple elite titles to his name including 4 UTMB, 6 Skyrunning World Series and 5 HardRock 100. In 2022, Jornet covered 170.3km with over 10,005m+ of positive elevation (UTMB,2022) in 19:49:30 to beat 20hrs.

Although amazing achievements, does this truly make Jornet the G.O.A.T.?

https://hrunner83.github.io/Marathon/

Data file: UTMB top 20.csv, https://github.com/Hrunner83/Marathon/blob/main/UTMB%20top%2020.csv

Python Book: Ultra3.ipynb, https://github.com/Hrunner83/Marathon/blob/main/Ultra3.ipynb

Background

Kilian Jornet is a trail, sky and long distance runner which limits the data availability considerably as the popularity of road running is greater than that of trail running and eliminates some distances e.g. over 100 miles. This is helpful as elite runners are drawn to only a handful of major races, three in particular form the coveted triple crown of ultra running – Hardrock 100, Western States 100 and UTMB 100.

“Created in 2003, the UTMB is “the most mythical and prestigious trail running race in the world” with approximately 170 kilometers and 10,000 meters of positive elevation gain…..A race like no other, it transcends the sport, and has established itself as an iconic trail race, renowned worldwide.” (UTMB, 2025)

“Regarded as the most competitive trail ultramarathon in the world, the UTMB World Series Finals has to make the list.” (Ultra X,undated)

From this I created the criteria and questions to find out if Jornet is the G.O.A.T.

Criteria:

  1. Limit the data to UTMB 100 mile race.
  2. Only look at the Top 20 finishers.
  3. Use all years available for the race 2003-2024.

Questions to answer:

  1. Does Jornet have the fastest finish time?
  2. Does Jornet have the fastest average speed?
  3. Does Jornet have the most a) first place finishes b) podiums?

Data Infrastructure & Tools

An initial dataset was found on Kaggle covering over 7 million ultra running records for the years between 1798 and 2022 from races all over the world (David,Kaggle,2023). Due to the size exceeding 700mb and redaction of the athletes name the dataset was deemed not fit for purpose but as a likely expansion dataset.

A second data set was found meeting the criteria for years 2003 to 2017 (ANN14, 2018). On inspecting a single year, the files looked to have the majority of data fields required, however, some fields were missing data and years 2018 to 2024 would need to be sourced.

The UTMB website (UTMB World,2025) holds data on the finishers of all races from the starting year 2003 to 2024 which is the perfect open data source. Data from this site was used to populate the missing data and years from the original download.

All data was open source and GDPR compliant.

Excel was chosen to collate and transform the data source through Power Query.

Python was chosen to manipulate and visualize the data once transformed. Numpty, Seaborn and Matplotlib.pyplot were loaded to this end.

Data Engineering

The data was passed through Power Query to first stack the separate result years (separate csv files for each year) then limit to the top 20 of each year. Columns added for Year, Event Distance, Event Elevation and calculated Average speed. Finish times, Country and Name compared from the website to the Kaggle data set to check accuracy.

Missing data in Club, Country, Gender and Category was corrected and standardised to format Gender and Age group e.g. M23. All data checked against UTMB World website (UTMB World, 2025), the race organiser, and deemed accurate.

To finish, all columns were formatted as random formats had been used for the same column across different year csv’s. The 2020 event was cancelled due to the Covid pandemic with years 2010 and 2012 needing further investigation due to shortened length and quicker times (Severe weather had stopped the races) and were managed in Python.

Data Analytics & Visualisation

Python is a fantastic analytic and visualisation tool that fitted perfectly with the project requirements. Several basic tables and graphs were used to get a visual feel for the data before turning to project questions.

Does Jornet have the fastest finish time?

Kilian does not have the fastest finish time but does feature twice at 2nd and 4th fastest finish. Francois D’Haene was the first to beat the 20 hour barrier and holds the fastest time.

Does Jornet have the fastest average speed?

Kilian does not hold the highest average speed over a single race (3rd & 7th) nor over all entries (8th). This distinction between the highest average and fastest time is due to the differing race distances and elevations as seen in most trail races. Using Naismith’s Rule (Siobhan Milner, 28/03/2024), 1m of elevation puts 7.92m of horizontal strain on the body.

Does Jornet have the most a) first place finishes b) podiums?

Kilian has the most UTMB wins and podium finishes.

Results

My expectation of this project was for the data to prove Kilian Jornet as the G.O.A.T. of the UTMB but in the end I am less than certain.

It is true that he is very consistent with 2 of the top 5 fastest finish times, both coming in under 20 hours. It is true he has the most podium finishes and the most wins in the history of the event totaling 4 wins and a second place. However, he does not hold the fastest time nor the fastest average speed – surely the G.O.A.T would have be top at everything?

By the criteria of this research Jornet only meets 1 of the 3 criteria and cannot claim the title on this project alone.

Conclusion

Although the UTMB 100 mile race is the most recognisable and prestigious in the ultrarunning community it is also the youngest of the ‘Triple Crown’ races. Both Hardrock (1992) and Western States (1977) are considerably older. To expand this project, I would take the same level of data from the original large dataset for those races and rerun the project for each to give a direct comparison.

The dataset was focused on the ‘cream’ of ultrarunners by taking the top 20 from the top race. This methodology has the potential to give false readings from survivorship bias due to not taking into account those that did not finish (can be 30%+ drop out rate) and providing a very narrow dataset. Expanding to top 50 or top 100 would be good for the next iteration. Also, from this working this project, I noticed the absence of female numbers. The International Trail Running Association (ITRA) estimates a membership split of 72.2% male, 27.8% female (Shane Ohly, 06/03/2023). For the UTMB 100 mile this figure is a lot lower (Mathias Eichler, 2022 & 2023):

2022 UTMB 100, 2811 entrants, 2538 male (90.3%) and female 273 (9.7%). 2023 UTMB 100, 2814 entrants, 2473 male (88%) and 340 female (12%).

To improve and create a fairer project, looking at the top males and females would show some hidden superstars e.g. Courtney Dauwalter achieved the triple crown in 2023, indeed she won every race she entered in 2023 (Amber Sayer, Marathon Handbook, 06/06/2024)!

References

RUN, Brian Metzler, 02/09/2022, Kilian Jornet Isn’t the G.O.A.T. of Trail Running Just Because He Wins Big Races - RUN Powered by Outside [online], https://run.outsideonline.com/people/kilian-jornet-goat-ultraunner/, accessed 08/07/2025.
RUN247, Runner profile, Kílian Jornet Biography & News Runner RUN247 [online], https://run247.com/runners/kilian-jornet#:~:text=23%20Next-,Without%20doubt%20the%20GOAT%20(Greatest%20Of%20All%20TIme)%20of%20mountain,22%20and%20May%2027%2C%202017., accessed 08/07/2025.

Kaggle, DAVID, 2023, The big dataset of ultra-marathon running [online], https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/aiaiaidavid/the-big-dataset-of-ultra-marathon-running, accessed 08/07/2025.

Kaggle, ANN14, 2018, UTMB EDA, https://www.kaggle.com/code/anni14/utmb-eda [online], accessed 09/07/2025.

UTMB World, 2025, HOKA UTMB Mont Blanc Race Results [online], https://montblanc.utmb.world/results, accessed 22/07/2025.

UTMB, 2025, UTMB® - Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc [online], https://montblanc.utmb.world/races/UTMB, accessed 22/07/2025.

I Run Far, 02/09/2022, The Extraordinary Ultrarunning Career of Kilian Jornet – iRunFar [online], https://www.irunfar.com/the-extraordinary-ultrarunning-career-of-kilian-jornet, accessed 22/08/2025.

Siobhan Milner, 28/03/2024, Elevation gain & running duration: How much slower is running hills? – Siobhan Milner [online], https://siobhan-milner.com/2024/03/28/elevation-gain-running-duration-how-much-slower-is-running-hills/#:~:text=Naismith%27s%20Rule%20is%20often%20used,come%20into%20play%20here%20hugely., accessed 08/07/2025.

Ultra X, Kit O’Callaghan, Top 10 Greatest 100 Mile Races In The World Ultra X [online], https://ultra-x.co/the-best-100-mile-race-in-the-world/, accessed 22/07/25.

Shane Ohly, 06/03/2023, Overcoming Barriers to female participation in trail running: Race Director’s Blog — Ourea Events [online], https://www.oureaevents.com/news/2023/3/6/female-participation-race-directors-blog#:~:text=Looking%20closer%20to%20home%20in,42%25%20male%2C%2057%25%20female, accessed 26/08/2025.

Mathias Eichler, 24/08/2022, UTMB 2022 Gender Split Electric Cable Car [online], https://electriccablecar.com/utmb-2022-gender-split/, accessed 26/08/2025.
Mathias Eichler, 01/09/2023, UTMB 2023 Gender Splits and Other Fun Electric Cable Car [online], https://electriccablecar.com/utmb-2023-gender-numbers-and-other-fun/, accessed 26/08/2025.

Amber Sayer, Marathon Handbook, 06/06/2024, 8 Of The Best Ultramarathon Runners In The World Today [online], https://marathonhandbook.com/best-ultramarathon-runners/, accessed 26/08/2025.